What will the music industry look like in 2026?

The music industry moves at a sometimes alarmingly fast speed - but thankfully, we’ve always got our finger on the pulse.

In this blog post, we look back over the trends that have spread through the music industry in 2025 and look ahead to our 2026 predictions.

What Happened in the Music Industry in 2025

Mergers, Acquisitions & Independence

With the proposed acquisition of Downtown Music by UMG being announced in the last few days of 2024, it’s no surprise that discussions about mergers, acquisitions and the challenge of remaining independent dominated many music industry headlines throughout 2025.

At its core, the discussion centres around the threat UMG’s growth poses to the choice available to independent artists and labels. With an increasing number of smaller music companies being bought out by major players in the industry, many commentators (including over 100 contributors to the 'Block the deal' campaign) fear that the elimination of Downtown Music, a key competitor to Universal Music Group, will mean UMG have too much control over the technology, the standards and the supply chain of the entire music industry.

With the deal far from finalised, this conversation will certainly continue into 2026.

Artificial Intelligence

Another 2025 prediction we made that turned out to be entirely accurate is the rise of Artificial Intelligence. It’s everywhere, and everyone has opinions on it - but the main debate in the music industry is the ethics of training AI using human-made music without the proper licensing, attribution, or royalties.

The general consensus amongst independent artists is that using generative AI to create music that you pass off as human-made is definitely unethical. But there is still a debate over the extent to which using AI tools in the production of music is allowable. Regardless of where you stand in the debate, AI certainly isn’t going anywhere and 2026 is likely to see continued debate and even more sophisticated technology making an appearance.

Artificial Streaming

As technology becomes more sophisticated, the use of that technology for illegitimate personal gain increases too. Bot farms that generate artificial streams of music continue to pose a threat to legitimate artists, but thankfully most major DSPs have invested heavily in detection and prevention technology in 2025.

In 2026, the battle between artificial streaming and detection/prevention will continue, making it super important for artists to be careful about which playlists their music is added to and avoiding any promotion that guarantees a specific number of streams.

You can learn more about Artificial Streaming, how to spot fake streams, and what happens if your music is subject to bot streams here.

Predictions for the Music Industry in 2026

Anti-Algorithm Sentiment

Towards the end of 2025, we’ve seen an increasing shift away from relying on algorithmic discovery towards more ‘traditional’ discovery methods. Major DSPs, like Spotify, have come under fire for their bias towards established artists, most of whom are signed with major record labels.

In 2026, this trend is likely to continue. Fans will demand choice when it comes to their algorithms, and it’s likely that DSPs will adjust their processes to facilitate that choice. However, it also means we may see a shift away from major DSPs and towards smaller, more niche platforms that better cater to what fans of independent music are asking for.

AI vs Humanity Continues

AI isn’t going anywhere. In 2026, we’re confident it will only become more widely used, more sophisticated, and more difficult to distinguish from non-AI-generated content.

Streaming platforms and social media platforms are both going to need to develop more intelligent ways of identifying fully AI-generated content, while AI-generated content simultaneously becomes closer to being entirely indistinguishable from human-generated content.

Fans are likely to demand greater transparency over how or whether AI has been used in the generation of the music they’re listening to, and we’re likely to see more platforms following Deezer’s lead by introducing tagging of AI-generated content.

Challenges to Creativity

Better technology will help make the creative process simpler and more streamlined in 2026 - but will that threaten true creativity?

AI tools are already being widely used to aid in the production of music, and the debate about assistive-AI is slightly less fierce than it is about generative-AI. But our prediction is that many artists will struggle to find the balance between using technology as a tool and relying too much on technology, to the detriment of true creativity.

While we’re not suggesting that creativity and technology can’t coexist, we do see there being competing interests when it comes to music production. Just as fans are actively preferring human-generated music over AI-generated music, it may be that 2026 sees some artists preferring to go ‘old-school’ in their production, saying no to too much technology and yes to being creatively free.

Staying Independent

With the UMG/Downtown Music saga continuing into 2026, what it means to be independent and to remain independent will no doubt be discussed throughout the industry. If the acquisition goes ahead, there will be a question mark over the independence of artists using CD Baby to distribute their music, for example. CD Baby is a division of Downtown Music - and if Downtown Music gets acquired by UMG, CD Baby (and its artists) will become part of the Universal Music Group family.

Of course, distributing with CD Baby doesn’t mean an artist is signed to a major label - but it does give UMG even more power over the choices independent artists make. With so many ‘independent’ distribution, publishing and other artist services companies now being controlled by or, at the very least, associated with the major labels, staying truly independent is becoming more challenging.

Pair that with the threat of streaming platform algorithms prioritising discovery of label-signed artists and it’s possible that 2026 will see a big swing towards more artists and fans eschewing both major labels and major DSPs in an effort to stay true to their independent roots.

For those artists, working with a distributor who is truly independent (and always will be) will become an increasingly important consideration when choosing how to release music.